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In the wake of a wonky political year and the overwhelming fallout surrounding sexual misconduct in Hollywood, this Oscar season has felt long and trivial. But the show must go on, so we’ve still dutifully logged predictions for the Academy’s top six categories.
If anything, this year’s awards are an opportunity to address the state of the industry and, at the risk of sounding grandiose, the state of the world we live in. The stars in attendance will rise to the occasion: They’ve already banded together to wear black at Sunday’s Golden Globes to protest harassment.
With Oscar ballots opening Friday, studios’ multimillion-dollar campaigns are near the finish line. That leaves less than three weeks until the nominations are announced on Jan. 23 ― and yet this year’s Best Picture contest is still undecided. Any number of movies could land the big kahuna, though I suspect “Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “The Post,” “Dunkirk” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” are the true pacesetters.
Here are the 16 films in the lead for Best Picture, ranked according to their likelihood of winning.