Tesla is having a big week.
The automaker is now bigger than Ford in market cap. Tesla was even on the verge of surpassing GM in market cap on Tuesday. It’s a big deal for a company that has sought to contend with traditional car manufacturers.
Not too long ago, many doubted Tesla’s ability to survive
producing electric vehicles. Fast forward to 2017, and Tesla is
advancing autonomous tech, producing two luxury cars, selling commercial
batteries on a mass scale, and about to foray into solar installations.
CEO Elon Musk has transformed Tesla from a small startup in
Palo Alto, California, into an enviable competitor in the auto industry.
But as Musk said on Twitter,
Tesla’s market-cap growth says more about where people see the company
heading than its past accomplishments. And Tesla’s next big move could
also be its greatest weakness going forward: the launch of the Model 3,
its first mass-market sedan priced at $35,000 before federal tax
My colleague Matt DeBord has written extensively on this topic.
Musk is launching the Model 3 at a time when demand for sedans is
waning. Gone are the days where people bought smaller cars to contend
with higher gas prices. Gas is cheap, and it will likely stay that way
as President Donald Trump prepares to roll back fuel-emissions standards.
SUVs are currently the most lucrative segment in the auto industry. Both compact and mid-size crossover SUVs account for 35% of all cars and trucks sold in the United States. (It’s why companies looking to enter the electric-car space are starting with an electric SUV.)
Even Tesla is experiencing that uptick in SUV demand — the company delivered
roughly the same number of Model X SUVs (11,550) as it did its more
traditionally popular Model S sedans (13,450) in the first quarter.
Couple that with the fact that it’s much harder to generate a
profit on a mass-market sedan, and you can see how Tesla could have a
problem. Tesla is entering a market that isn’t growing and could take a
greater toll on its bottom line.
The Model 3 will surely be a hit when it rolls off the assembly line at the end of this year — after all, Tesla already has sold about 400,000 of the electric cars.
But it’s a matter of what happens when that initial surge of
excitement disappears. Can Tesla truly handle the transition from
luxury to consumer-friendly?
It doesn’t help that Tesla generally has struggled to meet
its delivery goals because of production issues. The Model S was
supposed to roll out in 2010 but was delayed to mid-2011. The Model X
suffered three years of delays.
“We were in production hell,” Musk said on the company’s second-quarter 2016 earnings call. “We climbed out of hell in June.”
But Musk is preparing accordingly to ensure the Model 3 launch goes off without any hiccups. In November, Tesla bought a German automation company to help speed up assembly-line production. Tesla also temporarily shut down its factory in Fremont, California, in February to prepare it for Model 3 production.
Tesla delivered a record 25,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2017.
The electric-car maker also has a better cash cushion after raising $1.2 billion in March.
Tesla’s market-cap valuation signals a huge vote of
confidence in the company. Musk will have to seamlessly transition into
the mass-market space — not just in the first year, but in the long run —
to meet those expectations.